Drop rates

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Drop rates refer to the likelihood of items such as Blue Keys, Green Keys, Resource Boxes, dropping when a Vault is opened. Every vault opened by Alriad was recorded on a form that directly linked to the spreadsheet linked below, and is constantly being updated live. Knowledge of drop rates allows players to understand their expected rate of resources and make a strategy for opening up the various types of boxes.

Data collected by Alriad with the help of Zach and analysis performed by ISpeakNerd with the help of khag.

Data Gathered for Analysis

Drops recorded from Blue Vaults and Uservaults and Green Vaults were collected. The data consisted of recording every vault opened to ensure consistency of data collection and rule out biased entries. The amount of each type of key dropped, rate of Resource Box drop, and what it contained was recorded, the data is time stamped, and each data entry point is available on the spreadsheet below. Furthermore the spreadsheet and analysis is dynamic and constantly updates as more data points are added. The sample size for Uservaults is approaching significance, and while the sample size of Blue Vaults is relatively small, the dynamic spreadsheet is constantly being updated thus can be used as a useful tool to estimate expected drop rates.

The full dataset can be found in this live spreadsheet.

Key Drop Rates from Vaults

The following items dropped from normal Blue Vaults vs Uservaults:


Deep Analysis of Vault Returns

The following table consists of a breakdown of

  1. Vaults opened:
  2. Estimated drop rates from opening each type of vault for:

This table also lists the expected "key refund" which is defined in the table between Blue Vaults vs Uservaults: