Coin Hunt World Drop Rate Estimates

Drop rates refer to the likelihood of items such as Blue Keys, Green Keys, Resource Boxes, and Twitter Boxes dropping when a Vault is opened. Knowledge of drop rates allows players to make mathematically informed decisions about what to do with their hard-earned Resin.

Data and report provided by Aegis.

Data Gathered for Estimation

Drops recorded from 283 Blue Vaults and 219 Uservaults over a one month period from June to July 2021 were used to estimate the drop rates. This is a relatively small sample size, but provides insight into the relative drop rates. Happy Hour drops were excluded, as they are guaranteed and skew the results. The full dataset can be found in this spreadsheet.

Drop Rates from Normal Blue Vaults

The following items dropped from 283 normal Blue Vaults:

Drop Rates from normal vaults!

Item	Number of Drops	Drop Rate
Blue Key	29	10.25%
Green Key	0	0%
Twitter Box	26	9.18%
Resource Box	90	31.80%

The following table consists of the relative drop rates of items assuming that a resource box did drop. Special resource boxes (i.e. those that dropped Cowboy Hat or Pigskins) are excluded from the paint drop rates.

When a resource box dropped, it provided 150.56 Resin on average. Since normal blue vaults drop a resource box 31.80% of the time, the average normal blue vault provides 45.75 resin when opened.

Drop Rates from User Vaults

The following items dropped from 219 Uservaults:

Drop Rates from user vaults!

Item	Number of Drops	Drop Rate
Blue Key	54	24.65%
Green Key	4	1.83%
Twitter Box	68	31.05%
Resource Box	124	56.62%

The following table consists of the relative drop rates of items assuming that a resource box did drop. Special resource boxes (i.e. those that dropped Cowboy Hat or Pigskins) are excluded from the paint drop rates.

When a resource box dropped, it provided 143.95 Resin on average. Since user vaults drop a resource box 56.62% of the time, the average user vault provides 81.50 resin when opened.

Summary of Findings

There are several important conclusions that can be drawn from these estimates:

• Uservaults drop Resource Boxes 1.8 times more often than normal Blue Vaults.
• Opening a Uservault provides you with 35.75 more resin on average when compared to opening a normal Blue Vault.
• Uservaults also drop Blue Keys 2.5 times more often and Resource Boxes 3 times more often when compared to normal Blue Vaults. No conclusions could be drawn related to the Green Key drop rate as none dropped outside of user vaults.
• The "type" of Resource Box dropped from the two vault types seems to be identical, as they dropped similar amounts of resin and paint.
• Assuming the devs favor "nice" numbers, the following seem to be the best drop rate estimates:

Building User Vaults vs. Unlocking Uphold

Armed with this information, we can calculate how long a player is expected to take to build their Uservaults and unlock Uphold, given how many vaults the player hits daily.

For example, suppose a new player opens 6 normal blue vaults and 2 user vaults twice daily. Based on the drop rate estimates, that results in an average of 875 resin per day. After accounting for the 5000 resin provided for building their HQ, the player will need 5.7 days to either construct their first user vault or unlock Uphold. If they elect to build their user vault first and hit that twice daily, their new average resin per day is 1042, and it will take 9.6 days to build their second UV. Once that UV is built, their average resin per day jumps to 1210, and so on...continuing the math, it will take 62.8 days to build all ten of their user vaults. At this point, their average resin per day is 2505, and unlocking Uphold only takes 4 days. So it takes 66.8 days for the player to be "fully built" with Uphold unlocked.

On the other hand, suppose the player unlocks Uphold first. It only takes 5.7 days, but it will now take 11.4 days for them to build their first UV. Continuing with the same math, it will take 74.1 days for the player to be "fully built" with Uphold unlocked. In summary, a week of progress is lost by unlocking Uphold first.

You can enter your daily vault statistics into the following spreadsheet and see how long it will take you with each strategy - check it out here.

Replacing Normal Blue Vaults with User Vaults

We can also calculate the loss associated with replacing a Blue Vault with a Uservault. User Vaults provide an additional 35.75 resin upon being opened, so a player would need to open it 280 times to acquire 10,000 resin and "break even" with their initial investment into the UV. This will take a minimum of 140 days - not to mention the 12810 resin and $28 in crypto that would have been earned by leaving the original blue vault alone. This explains why building additional vaults is always preferred unless you're in an area with high vault and low key density.